Forensic measurement of metabolic asphyxiation, capital circularity, and liquidity breakdown in the AI sector.
The AI Bubble Index is a monthly forensic intelligence report that measures structural risk in the AI sector. Unlike sentiment analysis, it tracks the physics of the market: the mathematical breaking point where the cost of coordination exceeds the revenue it generates.
The 132x score: multiplicative strain across five infrastructure layers (silicon, cooling, facilities, distribution, grid). Not valuation — structural physics.
65-75% stress probability in H1 2026. Chain of Survival model across four correlated filters: valuation, refinancing, liquidity, grid.
CoreWeave DDTL termination March 2026. Oracle $38B offering. Synchronized debt maturities clustering in the same window.
Oracle CDS at 3-year highs. $5.4B in Oracle shorts. Utility shorts at highest since 1995. The smart money is already positioning.
FERC completion rates collapsed from 14% (2018) to 3% (2025). 2,900 GW in queue. The hard physics wall that capital cannot climb.
Four precedents: Railway Mania, Telecom, Shale, Cisco/Lucent. AI is the first bubble to cross both density AND velocity thresholds simultaneously.
Detect circular revenue exposure and narrative distortion before the market reprices risk.
Avoid capital destruction through early detection of metabolic asphyxiation in AI portfolio companies.
Track counterparty liquidity risk. Structural stress signals precede credit events by quarters, not days.
Whoever sees decay first sets price later.
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Full AI Bubble Index report with updated scores, probabilities, and strategic analysis. Delivered first week of each month.
Custom briefings, sector deep dives, and portfolio level metabolic analysis available for institutional clients.