Module II — Outcome Realisation Probability

Metabolic Due Diligence

Can this business deliver the value creation plan?

Valuation models assume execution. Term sheets assume coherence.

Most systems cannot metabolize new capital without destabilizing.

Metabolic Due Diligence measures Outcome Realisation Probability under real operating load.

Not whether the idea is good.

Whether the organism can convert signal to action to results at the speed and scale the thesis demands.

You are not buying strategy. You are buying insight into the target's ability to create value.

What It Measures

The conversion architecture that determines whether the investment case is realistic.

Execution Capacity

Bandwidth for ingesting signals and coordinating action across the system.

Growth Load Tolerance

Stress threshold before metabolism bends or breaks.

Accuracy Drift Risk

Likelihood that decision quality degrades as complexity and speed increase.

Integration Absorption Rate

How effectively the system digests capital, talent, acquisitions, and new vectors.

Metabolic Fragility and Failure Signatures

Early indicators of future structural breakdown.

Deals rarely fail because the market changed.

They fail because internal metabolism cannot carry the load that capital expects.

Output Package

Usually 72 to 144 hours, depending on completeness of information.

Outcome Realisation Probability

Quantified probability that value creation will translate into measurable results.

Value-to-Metabolism Fit Index

Whether the operating system can support the investment thesis at the required pace.

Growth Load Breakpoint Map

Where execution fractures as growth and complexity increase.

Integration Stress Forecast

Expected behaviour as capital, talent, and acquisitions are added.

Accuracy Degradation Thresholds

When decision quality begins to erode as speed and volume rise.

Archetype and Trajectory

Is this a candidate Elite Integrator, or a Chaotic Churner in waiting.

Failure Window Projection

If capital is deployed on current terms, when metabolism is likely to unravel without intervention.

This is not a red flag report with qualitative risks.

It is execution viability in numeric form.

When to Use Metabolic Due Diligence

After the VDR has been reviewed and value creation plans have been defined.

When management presentations look strong but execution history is uneven

Before price hardens and negotiation leverage disappears

When the value creation plan requires capabilities the target has never demonstrated

For roll-ups where integration sequencing determines success

In turnaround or distress situations where speed of execution is survival

For continuation vehicles where future performance depends on unrealized plans

Good ideas without sufficient metabolism destroy capital.

We surface that truth before the wire transfers.

What We Need From You

Minimal friction. No new systems. No integration work.

We require:

12 to 36 months of strategy and decision communication corpus

Leadership and decision-flow topology

Operating cadence such as planning cycles and review rhythm

Public filings, board materials, and performance reports

Proposed value creation plan for mapping IRR assumptions to metabolic reality

You retain control of all underlying data.

We return future-execution visibility.

Access

This diligence module is reserved for capital that will act on the insight.

Request Access

Spec sheet and sample output available upon qualification.

Continuous Metabolic Monitoring available by invitation for qualified engagements.